Josh Beckett, the Sox ace, has been decent this season. But decent does not usually describe a staff ace. He has started 18 games and won half of them (9-6) with a respectable 3.98 ERA. The problem for Beckett has been allowing way too many home runs. While his statistics in nearly every other significant category are about the same as in 2007, his ERA is up 0.61 thanks in large part to his inability to keep the other team in the ballpark. Last year Beckett allowed just 17 home runs over 30 starts; this year he has already allowed 15 homers in just 18 starts. To take the point a bit further, in the 10 starts that Beckett has allowed at least one home run his record is 3-5; in the 8 starts he has not allowed a home run his record is 6-1. Figuring out the issue here does not get much more obvious than that. So while I’d still choose Beckett to start Game 7 of the World Series this year, even if I had my choice of any pitcher in the entire league. But if he doesn’t start pitching like the ace he is soon he’ll be home watching the Series on television instead of dominating it once again.
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11 comments:
Now that we have located the issue (home runs) can anyone figure out why it's happening? My guess, based on what I've seen, are too many fat pitches with 2 strikes...possibly one of my top 5 pet peeves in all of baseball.
I said when picking the All Star teams that Lester was the Sox best pitcher in the 1st half...he certainly continued that tonight. Great stuff.
Beckett is like a #3 this year he's eating innings (only 3 games less than 6 innings) and is 24th in the AL in ERA and in Wins. Even though he's not playing like the ace of the Boston Red Sox, come the playoffs he will dominate as always. I figure if he's got 9 wins right now he'll finish with about 15-17 wins.
In the playoffs he is still our #1 guy, no question in my mind on that. He's earned the right to get the Game 1 start.
I would just love to know why he's letting up so many homers this year.
And, on a sidenote, is it just me or does it seem like Jason Varitek gets tons of credit for every pitcher that is going well and zero blame for the ones that aren't?
Good point bout Tek not getting blame for pitching issues.
I'll give Tek credit for 7-10 HR Beckett has given up.
Tek may get more credit than he deserves for managing the pitching staff. However, he has caught 4 no hitters with two of them in the last two years. He has also come close on a few other occassions, including Schilling's outing last year that was broken up with two outs in the ninth inning. Based on his resume I don't think the praise is without merit.
A catcher can only call the game, and if the pitcher isn't locating his pitches then it's not the catchers fault. Same deal when the pitcher shakes off the catcher - then its on the pitcher if it doesn't work out.
I'm sure Varitek has given his share of bad signals, but when its the same pitcher struggling over and over again then I think you have to look at the guy on the mound.
I believe the problem with Beckett is mental.
His first year in Boston he thought he could come in a strike everyone out with his fastball and he threw it every chance he had. It was a strategy that may have worked for him in the light hitting National League, but got him knocked around in the American League.
After being humbled in his first season with the Sox he came back last year and did a much better job of mixing his pitches and keeping guys off balance. As a result he almost won a Cy Young award.
I think this year he came in with his giant ego back intact and decided he was going to do things his way again. Unfortunatly, he is not fooling anyone and hitters are just diggin in on him.
I hope he realizes sooner than later that his approach isn't working and he needs to go back to what he was doing last year.
No way would I let Beckett start game one of a playoff series.
Dice-K
Lester
Beckett
Wake
duffman, to say you wouldn't start beckett in a playoff game takes away almost all of the credibility you have built up in just a short period of time.
As for Tek, he certainly deserves tons of credit, no question. I just think he (like other Boston athletes) have people who love to point out every time they do something good and get no credit for when they do something bad. Based on your post about Theo I'd say it's the anti-Theo syndrome.
DK, my comments are based on facts and observations of our beloved teams. While you may not share my views I don't think its right for you to discredit them either.
I felt like the Beckett blog was potentially becoming about Varitek, which wasn't right. The problems with the team's ace falls squarly on his shoulders and should be examined from that standpoint. Not if Varitek is giving him bad signs, or if Farrell is crop dusting the the mound when he comes out to visit, or even if his sleep posture bed is set to the right number.
I do think Theo is over-rated, but Theo didn't bring Beckett here, so this isn't about me projecting a Theo bias onto Beckett.
I have no bad feelings towards Beckett and would like to see him succeed, but its clear he has a big ego and its interfering with the way he does business on the mound. I seriously think Beckett believes he can walk up there and over power guys and that's where he's getting into trouble. He just needs to change his approach to the game.
How can someone who loves sports statistics as much as you do even question giving the ball to Dice-K in game one of a playoff series. Looks at his numbers against Beckett and you'll see why the wiley pitcher from Japan deserves the ball.
Duffman, I must admit I mis-read your post. I would not have been so harsh had I read it right, which has you placing Beckett in the 3-slot. I read it too fast and saw it has Buchholz for some reason and thought you were leaving Beckett out altogether. You can see, given that, why I thought it was crazy.
I would still give the ball to Beckett in Game 1, but don't find your argument to be a bad one. After all the guy is 10-1 with a 2.63 ERA. Tough to argue with.
However...Beckett has proven to be one of the best young big game pitchers of his time already. We all know that the playoffs are a different game than the regular season and Beckett has more than excelled.
And, just looking at their stats so far this year....
Innings per start:
6.67 - Beckett
5.63 - Dice-K (BIG difference)
Strikeouts per 9
8.48 - Beckett
7.81 - Dice-K
Walks per 9
1.88 - Beckett
5.64 - Dice-K (BIG difference)
K/BB ratio
4.52 - Beckett
1.38 - Dice-K
WHIP
1.16 - Beckett
1.36 - Dice-K
On-Base % Allowed
.290 - Beckett
.324 - Dice-K
Dice-K takes him in home runs allowed (15-5) and Slugging % Allowed (.404-.305). Which brings me back to my original point, if Beckett can stop letting up the long ball he is the most dominating pitcher in the game.
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